The patron is the economic system.
I purchased a espresso this morning for $3.20. Later I’ll be taking my six-year-old to town. We’re going to spend $30 on practice tickets, $50 on the Museum of Pure Historical past, and one other $30 on meals.
We’re a nation of spenders. 68% of our GDP comes from us opening our wallets.
For those who assume we’re going to have a recession in 2024, you need to assume People are going to curtail their spending.
We heard from CEOs of the largest banks this week as we enter earnings season. What they’re seeing and saying just isn’t indicative of a shopper that’s something apart from wholesome.
Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase stated “A really robust labor market means, all else equal, robust shopper credit score. In order that’s how we see the world.”
Brian Moynihan, the CEO of Financial institution of America had comparable issues to say. Earlier than we get to that, shameless investor plug. I hear to those earnings calls on Quartr. For those who’re an analyst who follows corporations, I can’t advocate this extremely sufficient. Reside transcripts and slides multi function place. And that’s simply scratching the floor of what they will do.
Here’s a screenshot from the Financial institution of America Name
“For those who assume again, as we ended 2022 and entered 2023, the nice debate was how a lot the pandemic surge in deposits would dissipate. However look — wanting as we speak, we ended 2023 with $1.924 trillion of deposits, solely $7 billion lower than we had at year-end ’22 and 4% greater than the trough in Could of this yr. The full deposit — the overall common deposits within the fourth quarter remained 35% greater than they did within the fourth quarter of 2019.”
Complete spending from BofA clients was $4.1 trillion in 2023, 4% greater than it was in 2022, and 35% greater than it was in 2019, the total yr earlier than the pandemic.
We’re spending our butts off, however we’re not overextending ourselves. Right here’s Moynihan once more:
“They’re utilizing their credit score responsibly, a lot is made of upper bank card balances, however on the dimensions of the economic system and the dimensions — persons are forgetting that economic system is lots larger than it was in ’19 due to the inflation and every part. And as a proportion, we don’t see any stress there. We see a normalization of that credit score. In order that they’re working, they’re getting paid. They’ve balances in accounts. They’ve entry to credit score. They’ve locked in good charges on their mortgages they usually’re employed. It’s — we really feel it’s good. So we predict the mushy touchdown is a core thesis and our inner knowledge helps what our analysis staff sees.”
Individuals are going to proceed to spend as they’ve been so long as they’ve the earnings to assist it. And the economic system goes to be superb so long as folks proceed to spend.
This ought to be supportive of a good inventory market. It doesn’t imply we received’t have corrections. We are going to. It doesn’t imply we will’t get a bear market. We will. However so long as the economic system is buzzing, danger belongings ought to do superb.
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